The trade war unleashed by Trump’s tariffs and the knock-on effects for business confidence and commodities demand are reflected in our latest chart overview
With 30-year US Treasury yields and the broad US dollar moving in opposite directions as the Trump administration sets about overturning decades-old norms, untangling trends and possibly new drivers behind America’s international investment position could become much more complicated.
Soft data – the University of Michigan inflation expectations and the FRBNY Business Leaders outlook – indicate a level of anxiety about the future, which could easily seep into hard data.
In the trade war, trends in Chinese currency indices, as opposed to the USDCNH pair, will be interesting. And as Europe ponders its next moves, uncertainties are taking a toll with loan demand, for example, ticking lower. For Australia’s electorate, voters want to see the end of lacklustre economic growth and of the pain of higher prices.
Demand for copper should fall as economic growth slows. However, mining infrastructure spending has lagged, so supply might struggle to match any upswings in economic activity. And demand for copper could increase if defence spending increases meaningfully too.
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